What happens next after Nicola Sturgeon's resignation as First Minister?
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FIRST Minister Nicola Sturgeon's resignation marks the end of a long and successful era for the SNP leader.
As well as being First Minister for eight years, she has led her party to multiple convincing election victories, both at Holyrood and at Westminster – continuing a 16-year period in office for the SNP that any other party in the UK would give their right arm for.
The party even increased its number of seats in Holyrood at the most recent Scottish Government elections in 2021 despite having been in power for 14 years by that point – a length of time when most parties would usually expect support to be on the wane amid growing voter apathy.
Related: First Minister resigns saying 'I know in my head and in my heart the time is now'
POLL: Was Nicola Sturgeon right to resign as First Minister?
And, despite recent controversies over the handling of the A9 dualling programme, education, health, and the Gender Recognition Reform Bill, approval ratings for both Sturgeon and the SNP were still strong enough to make today's announcement all the more surprising for politicians, commentators and public alike.
But what happens next?
Well, Nicola Sturgeon's resignation speech today made it clear that she will be remaining on as First Minister until her party can choose a new leader.
That means that life at Holyrood will continue as normal until the process to choose a new leader ends, at which point her successor will become leader of the SNP and, barring any hugely unexpected breakdown within the ruling SNP-Green coalition, the new First Minister.
Who will the new leader be?
That is a lot more difficult to predict. Polling in the Sunday Times last weekend had Highland MSP Kate Forbes as the front-runner, but only by the slimmest of margins.
Indeed, when the identity of who should be new leader was put to the people being polled, a whopping 69% said they 'didn't know' who should replace Nicola Sturgeon.
That same question saw only seven per cent opt for Kate Forbes, and she had the biggest share among named individuals.
However, former party leader John Swinney (six per cent), Angus Robertson (five per cent), the SNP's Westminster leader Stephen Flynn (three per cent) and Mahdi McAllen (three per cent) were not far behind.
What this poll suggests is that, unlike when Alex Salmond resigned and it was crystal clear that Nicola Sturgeon was the runaway favourite to replace him, there is no such obvious successor waiting in the wings this time round, and any one of several candidates could ultimately wind up taking up residence in Bute House.
Who wins, and what that ultimately means for the direction of the party and government, is much less clear. Will Sturgeon's successor be determined to pursue an independence vote at the earliest opportunity – the timing of which has been causing ructions within the party and independence movement for some time. Will the new leader be more socially liberal or more socially conservative than Sturgeon? And will they prove as adept at winning the electoral support of the public as Sturgeon, and Salmond before her? Only time will tell.
