YOUR VIEWS: The science and maths is simple and all points to man-made CO2
May I address two issues raised in recent correspondence about climate change.
Firstly, Charles Wardrop (Letters 19th October) continued his campaign of misinformation by claiming there is a ‘burgeoning return of fossil fuel burning for energy in many nations’.
Let us refer to the authoritative Statistical Review of World Energy 2023 by the Energy Institute to assess that claim.
That review shows:
• fossil fuel consumption as a percentage of primary energy remained steady at 82 per cent.
• Renewables’ (excluding hydro-electricity) share of primary energy consumption reached 7.5%, an increase of nearly one per cent over the previous year.
• Solar and wind recorded a record increase of 266 GW in 2022.
• Global natural gas demand declined by three per cent in 2022... Its share in primary energy in 2022 decreased slightly to 24 per cent (from 25 per cent in 2021).”
• Oil demand in 2022 was 0.65 Mb/d (0.7 per cent) below 2019 levels.
• Since the year 2000, oil’s share of world primary energy consumption declined from around 38 per cent to around 32 per cent. Coal’s share peaked in 2011 at just over 30 per cent and has since declined to around 27 per cent.
Whilst it is true that world primary energy consumption, and CO2 emissions, continue to increase, causing small increases in both oil and coal absolute amounts, it is not true that this is due to a ‘burgeoning return’ to fossil fuels. It is simply that a rising tide lifts all boats.
Secondly, Paul Aarden (26th October) states that he is not sure where the 34 per cent figure for the amount of human caused CO2 in the atmosphere comes from.
To understand this, first look at the evidence: a graph of atmospheric CO2 for the last 10,000 years: https://berkeleyearth.org/dv/10000-years-of-carbon-dioxide/
That graph, derived from multiple ice cores along with recent direct measurements, shows that atmospheric CO2 only varied between around 260 to 280ppmv (parts per million by volume) for all of those 10,000 years until the late 19th Century after which CO2 shot up to its present level of c.420ppmv.
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That graph alone should convince anyone that something unprecedented for 10,000 years is now happening to CO2.
Records show that the amount of CO2 emitted to the atmosphere by human activity from 1750 to 2022 was 1,770 billion tonnes (bts). Each 1ppmv increase in atmospheric CO2 requires 7.83bts CO2, so the increase of 143ppmv (from 277ppmv in 1750 to 420ppmv now) required only 1120bts CO2.
So, we know that humans have emitted more than enough CO2 to account for all of the increase since 1750. That human caused increase constitutes 143x100/420 = 34 per cent of the present atmosphere.
Mr Aarden goes on to mention other, natural, sources of CO2, and suggests that the increase is ‘not at all our fault’. That is wrong.
It is true that the Earth seasonally emits large amounts of CO2 – about 770bts of CO2 per year but the Earth absorbs more than it emits – around 788bts per year.
Thus, the Earth has been a net absorber of CO2, taking in about half of human emissions, since 1750: further confirmation that all of the recent increase in atmospheric CO2 is human caused.
There is nothing controversial or unclear about any of the above.
Unfortunately, that does not prevent climate science deniers from spreading misinformation and doubt to confuse people and slow progress to our net-zero future.
Roy Turnbull
Nethy Bridge.
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Just 20 miles out with delivery
I would like to say a big thank you to Mrs Duffus, Kincraig, who, to her surprise, had a parcel, meant for me, delivered to her by Yodel and left in her shed!
Mrs Duffus put a message on Facebook, asking if anyone could help with the situation.
Thanks also to Fiona, Sally and Tricia, who saw the message and got in touch with my son Calum.
No wonder Mrs Duffus was surprised, as the address on the parcel was Nethy Bridge!
My geography is not great, but I know postcodes PH21 and PH25 are miles apart.
Mrs Duffus got in touch with Yodel and the parcel was collected from her address and delivered to me the same day, by Menzies. The driver said they were the third party, who collect and deliver where Yodel fail to.
I think it would be a good idea to give Yodel a wide berth, like they did with my parcel – about 20 miles!
Sandra Irvine
Nethy Bridge.
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The Church should be leading the way
Clive Every-Clayton (Thought for the Week, 26th October) says that ‘Rather than letting the liberalism of the world impact its moral agenda, the church needs to stay faithful to the exalted ethical teaching of Jesus and the Scriptures.’
How true that is – at least as far as the rest of the scriptures are consistent with the teaching and example of Jesus himself.
Too often the church has allowed itself to go with the flow and has failed to proclaim God’s love for every kind of person (as Jesus did).
Too often it has failed to stand up for women against misogyny, for people of colour against racism, for gays against homophobia, and (for centuries) for those born ‘out of wedlock’ and their mothers against the prejudice of society.
Too often the church has been slow to embrace the cause of the powerless in the face of those who misuse their power.
Altogether, the church has failed its master too often: it has been far too liberal in allowing such attitudes to be unchallenged.
If society has changed, at least up to a point, in these areas, then Christians should rejoice, and far from slavishly following the crowd, we should be in the lead!
Jim MacEwan
Nethy Bridge.
* * *
No need for litany of academic references
Thanks to Mr Dermot Williamson (Strathy, 26th October) who wants and needs more references to information on the control of a normal, variable climate, for that is what the world is enjoying now.
Rather than providing very many references, point by point, I now offer a selection of reliable sources concerning this vast field, often controversial, of scientific discourse.
Recommended are reports from Lindzen and Happer; reviews by Lightfoot and Ratzer and papers by Svensmark, Nir Shaviv and Plimer.
They, and many more, give the information sought.
It is quick and convenient to use computer searches. YouTube also offers many items without excessive technicalities.
Thus informed, Messrs Williamson and Turnbull will have learnt about scientific truths and uncertainties in these fields of study.
Dermot Williamson’s and Roy Turnbull’s messages are based only on present conventional wisdoms. These are by no means agreed with by very many first class workers in the relevant scientific fields.
Mr Paul Aarden, (Strathy – same edition) hits the nail on the head that climate change policy desperately deserves an objective, informed scientific approach as the authorities out East have adopted, maintaining essential fossil fuel usage, as detailed by Mr Clark Cross, also in the Strathy.
Meanwhile, it looks as if they will have the last laugh.
Charles Wardrop
Perth.
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Tragedy in the home of three great religions
When both the UK Tory and Labour leadership cannot advocate an immediate ceasefire in the Israeli Palestine war, the conciliatory words of First Minister Humza Yousaf is a welcome revelation.
Speaking in a synagogue with his own family anguish, he said: “I was brought up in this community with Jewish neighbours.
“We shared culture, traditions and even food.”
And in quoting further: “I want you to know that this First Minister, who is proudly Muslim, shares the pain of our Jewish communities.
“Your heartbreak is my heartbreak. Your loss is my loss. Your tears are my tears”.
The sadness is that in this ancient home of three great religions, the festering tragedy between these Arab peoples is only compounded by the far right and near criminal activities of the Prime Minister of Israel.
Grant Frazer
Newtonmore.
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Leaving planet fit for generations to come
Paul Aardon asks good questions (Strathy October 26, 5). But limited space lets me answer only those about CO2 and net zero.
He is correct that CO2 in the atmosphere is more than 400 parts per million. It reached 424 parts per million in May (NOAA, Broken record: Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels jump again).
Before the Industrial Revolution in the mid 1700s it was about 280 parts per million (NASA).
This ‘rate of increase over the past century is unprecedented, at least during the past 20,000 years’ (https://archive.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/016.htm).
Mr Aardon is also correct that carbon is emitted from natural as well as man-made sources. But nature also absorbs carbon, for example by plants’ photosynthesis.
Before the industrial revolution natural emissions and absorptions largely balanced each other, giving only modest changes in atmospheric CO2.
Since then, particularly since 1900, the increase in atmospheric CO2 is mostly from us burning fossil fuels.
He asks about 34 per cent (Roy Turnbull’s letter, Strathy October 12). It is the proportion of man-made CO2 existing in the atmosphere now.
Net zero is when emissions of greenhouse gasses (GHGs), such as CO2, equal those absorbed; that is when net emissions are zero.
Average world temperatures result largely from the amount of GHGs in the atmosphere. An increase in those GHGs cause global warming.
To stop global warming, the world as a whole needs to achieve net zero GHG emissions.
Clark Cross claims that the cost for the UK to reach net zero will be £4.5 trillion per year. This is incorrect: it is based on the Civitas report ‘Net Zero: an analysis of the economic impact’ that has been withdrawn for factual errors, and is widely criticised (The Guardian September 29, Strathy October 12).
He accuses me of not understanding ‘that the UK alone cannot stop a changing climate’.
This is untrue: I have written that we ‘should cajole laggard countries to cut emissions’, ‘all nations are in this world and its future together’, and ‘needs … each country to do its bit’ (Strathy, October 26). So please do not misrepresent me.
Unlike Mr Cross, I am more concerned about leaving the world habitable for future generations than about zero sum competition now between countries.
Dermot Williamson
Kincraig.
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Bad planning causes tragic climate events
Further to Paul Aarden’s letter seeking ‘clarity on the CO2 situation’ (Strathy 26th October) the following points may provide further cause for thought.
The Precautionary Principle lies at the heart of the perceived need to avert irreversible and catastrophic climate change.
It would appear difficult to contradict this approach, particularly as it is endorsed by the 97 per cent scientific consensus of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Unfortunately it is not widely understood that this much quoted IPCC consensus in which so many climate activists place their faith has been exposed as a fallacy based on misrepresentations of true scientific opinion and data manipulation.
It has also been conclusively proved that the supercomputers on which they base their climate predictions cannot fully assimilate the multiple natural chaotic forces of Nature and variable solar activity and consistently exaggerate warming trends,
Precautions are viewed as wise and prudent measures to minimise potential problems but these serious distortions of reality expose serious flaws in this approach.
In addition there is a great deal of political rhetoric aimed at stifling debate while at the same time fuelling a sense of guilt and intimidating the populace into silence and compliance.
This is compounded by the repeated use of the phrase ‘unprecedented since records began’ but it was only a little over 100 years ago that a very limited number of weather stations were operating and the subsequent urbanisation surrounding such facilities has created temperature distortions known as the ‘Urban heat island effect’.
The quest for net zero CO2 by 2050 has turned one of the fundamental, vital elements of life into a currency where the world’s ecosystems have acquired a commercial value through carbon trading and taxes.
The tragic consequences of extreme weather events such as the recent wildfires, the Pakistan floods and drought in Somalia are cited as prime evidence of a tipping point having been reached.
There is no substantiated truth that this is so and indeed in many instances the demands of burgeoning populations on the environment coupled with bad management and planning are the prime causes of such devastating events.
The dramatic global climatic fluctuations documented during the Roman Warm and Medieval Warm Periods and the Little Ice Age had absolutely no relation to human activities or CO2 emissions.
Of course, there will be an inevitable, gradual transition from the fossil fuel era but success in meeting this challenge it will be better served by bureaucracy limiting innovation principles rather than prohibitively costly and unnecessary precautions that will have little if any effect on global temperature.
Neil J Bryce
Gateshaw Cottage
Kelso.
