Professor John Curtice explains the rise of Reform UK and why Nigel Farage is his most admired politician at exclusive event staged by Highland News and Media
The Inverness Courier staged one of its regular subscriber events with Professor John Curtice, the acclaimed political scientist and fixture of election coverage in the UK.
Described by the New York Times as the “one man everyone trusts on UK election nights”, he was introduced by Highland News and Media managing director Steve Barron and interviewed by Nicky Marr.
What Prof. Curtice delivered to the fascinated audience was an entirely compelling analysis of British politics that upended a large number of perceptions.
He revealed that those who backed Brexit were not really divisible as left and right as traditionally understood – but rather social liberals and social conservatives.
Asked who he thought was the most impressive politician in the UK he immediately answered: “Nigel Farage" – his reasons were more about abilities than ideas.
But perhaps most impressive of all was his exposition of what the political spectrum now looks like, except in light of what he said it would be inaccurate to think of it simply as a linear spectrum.
Ideas of who votes left and right have fundamentally changed
In fact, it has become a much more convoluted thing that for different reasons posited left against the left and right against the right.
The evidence has been around for years but many struggled to understand clearly what has been going on.
What he did was open many people’s eyes to the living, breathing, ongoing impact of Brexit, which is a word laden with smug political and even ethical grandstanding.
“Although people often say, ‘oh left-wingers definitely voted to stay inside the EU and right-wingers voted to leave’ this is wrong, this is not true,” he said.
“People on the left think there is too much economic inequality and we should be doing something about it.
“People on the right say ‘no, no actually what the government needs to do is to create the environment in which entrepreneurs will invest therefore we get economic growth from which we will all profit’.
“This is a classic division to be left and right – what you actually discover if you use questions to define whether people are left or right is that actually people on the left defined in that way were slightly more likely to vote for Brexit than people on the right.”
‘Brexit was about was about an entirely different division’
So who did vote to leave or to remain? He answered: “What Brexit was about was about an entirely different division, a division between what we might call social liberals and social conservatives.
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Social liberals essentially say that on issues like moral codes, social mores, language, acknowledging the British flag or the Royal Family is up to you.
Social conservatives think that for a society to cohere then it should impose its moral code, follow commonly understood social mores, speak English, acknowledge the British flag with a British sense of identity.
Prof. Curtice also expertly accounted for the rise of Reform UK under Mr Farage, describing how the Tories swept to victory on the back of social conservatives.
He said: “And the truth is that the division about Brexit was that the social liberals voted to remain and social conservatives voted to leave, older people voted to get out, younger people voted to stay in, graduates voted to stay in, non-graduates voted to stay in”.
This accounts for the Conservatives victory in Red Wall constituencies in Midlands and North of England in 2019 after decades supporting Labour.
The rise of Reform UK
It also accounts for the rise in Reform which is the result of several major shifts: “The two party divide south of the border is now struggling to encompass what is now a multi-dimensional ideological environment because what defines Reform voters is that they believe in Brexit.
“Over half of the people who voted to leave in 2016 are now saying they're going to vote for Reform.
“So essentially what Nigel Farage has done is he has taken the coalition of voters that took Boris Johnson to power in 2019, and which Nigel Farage would say he lent Boris Johnson by standing his candidates down and has got them back.
“But the point is therefore support for Reform is essentially defined by where people stand on that second spectrum, they're a little bit to the right, but not particularly.”
Most admired politician
Mrs Marr asked “if there are any politicians who you admire?”
He answered: “Yeah, I'm about to make myself really, really unpopular.
“I'm going to say Nigel Farage. I am going to explain why. At the moment Nigel Farage is the only party leader: A. with charisma; B. who speaks human; and C. who can tell a story, can tell a narrative, can come up with a synoptic vision.
“Now, you may not like that version but in particular what he's very, very good at and I recommend anybody who wants to understand what I'm getting at is to listen to Nigel Farage's speech when they launched the so-called Contract for Reform at the last elections.
“Farage is brilliant at articulating the grievances that a certain section of our society have – he's very, very good at it. And the truth is that Nigel Farage has been the most influential politician in 21st century British politics.”
