No sun - and a severe weather warning!
THE STRATH and the wider Highlands could be in for a harsher winter than even 2009/2010 with record low temperatures and heavy snow, according to long-range forecasts.
It may be Midsummer’s Day, but experts are warning that steps need to be taken now to ensure that the region is ready for the snow and a long icy grip.
A drastic alteration in the flow of the Gulf Stream in recent years, the two recent eruptions of Icelandic volcanoes, the possible influence of La Nina and low solar activity are combining to lead to the severe weather warning.
Mr James Madden, UK long range forecaster for Exacta Weather, said he expects this winter to follow a similar pattern in terms of how November and December was last year but conditions will prevail throughout the vast majority of the coming winter.
He said: “It will be exceptionally cold with prolonged periods of well below average temperatures and widespread heavy snowfall throughout this winter.
“I fully expect to see records broken with the Highlands of Scotland being once again particularly hard hit.
“It is therefore vital to start preparing now in terms of high energy bills and to raise awareness amongst the most vulnerable and elderly people about the forthcoming winter.
“They could be trapped in their homes for weeks if the authorities are caught by surprise.”
Badenoch and Strathspey Highland councillor Stuart Black is a sheep farmer and also a member of the council’s TEC committee which has the responsibility of ensuring local roads and paths are kept as clear as possible in the winter.
He said that the council would have to review their investment in dealing with the problems caused by snow if the trend was to continue.
Councillor Black said: “For the past 20 years Highland Council has been taking a dividend from the winter budget because of the milder winters.
“If we are to face a series of cold winters here in the region then the authority will have to take this into account in terms of investment.”
He added: “One of the lessons that has been learnt by the council because of the last two winters is that we need to do more forward planning.”
Good progress had been made, he said, in ensuring local contractors can be called on more quickly by the council to help clear local paths and roads.
Social services has also started collecting details of the elderly and vulnerable who could be at greater risk during prolonged cold spells on the back of the two bad winters, he said.
Councillor Black, a long-time resident of the strath, believes that an unusual feature of the past two winters has been the speed with which great depths of snow had accumulated – even compared to the winters of the 1960s.
A spokesman from CairnGorm Mountain welcomed the forecast.
He said: “We hope it will come true. It would be great to have another snow sports season like the 2009/2010 winter which saw arguably the best snow conditions on record.
“With visitor numbers of over 120,000 for the last two years running, the snow provides a great boost to our local economy.”
Mr Colin Mathew, the resort’s operations manager concurs with the long-range forecast. The locally famous snowberry bushes in his garden at home a few miles from the ski resort have correctly forecast white winters in recent years.
He said: “My trees are currently full of foliage which means that we are in for another white winter.”
Mr Madden’s forecast is rather more scientific.
He said it is visible in recent NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmpoheric Administration) satellite images that the Gulf Stream has drastically altered within the last few years which provides conditions for colder weather.
The Gulf Stream is basically a huge volume of heated water that brings warmth to the UK in the form of a mild atmosphere and softens the climate for the latitude that the UK lies on.
Mr Madden said there is low solar activity at present which is also very important. There is also the influence of La Nina – the cooling of the Pacific Ocean near the equator which influences changes to atmospheric pressure and wind changes.
He explained: “Low solar activity causes the jet stream pattern to shift south and the UK is hit by cold air from the Arctic as cold North-easterlies take over.
“When high pressure builds towards Greenland (Greenland High) this allows extremely cold easterlies or North-easterlies to develop.
“A near record-breaking La Nina as we experienced last year strengthens the jet stream over the Atlantic. This effectively sets up a battleground as the two meet and results in widespread heavy snowfall.”
The possibility of La Nina redeveloping will become clearer over the next few months, Mr Madden said.
The weather expert also pointed to the eruptions of Eyjaffjallajokull in Spring, last year, and Grimsvotn, earlier this year, as being important in terms of sunlight reflection over the Northern Hemisphere.
He said: “The dust and ash particles can remain within the atmosphere for one to two years and reflect heat away from an already quiet sun.
“Converted sulphur dioxide emissions from volcanic eruptions can also cause sunlight reflection in the atmosphere.”
Exacta Weather is a free long range weather service that does not receive any government funding. The Met Office does not presently make long term forecasts.
For a more in depth forecast by them visit
http:/www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html .
