Highland’s first economic analysis of climate change risks paints ‘sobering picture’
A Highland organisation has released the region’s first economic analysis of climate change risks.
Highland Adapts, say the analysis provides ‘sobering picture’ of how much climate change is already costing the region.
It was found that climate change will have potentially significant negative impacts on the Highland region equivalent to around -1.5 per cent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) a year by the 2050s, rising to up to -3.3 per cent a year by the 2080s.
Impacts from flooding - coastal, river, and surface water - are estimated to increase from around £11 million per year currently to £20 million per year by the middle of the century and double that by the end of the century.
The potential economic costs of wildfires were estimated using data from current wildfires, economic costs of wildfire suppression, and non-market impacts from the release of greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants.
Current costs are estimated to be approximately £0.3 billion/year, driven by the high societal cost of carbon emissions. This could increase fourfold by the mid-century.
Risks to the energy sector include high negative impacts on energy generation, energy distribution, and on the delivery of net zero plans for the energy sector. The analysis also found some economic benefits for Highland residents from a reduced need for wintertime heating.
Risks to salmon production from rising sea temperature and ocean acidification will increase by the 2050s. Risks to whisky production from extreme events and climate conditions will also increase significantly over this time period.
For the forestry and timber sector, costs from high winds; drought, pests, and disease; and wildfires were estimated to rise significantly between 2030 and 2090.
“These reports mark a key step in our region’s journey towards climate resilience,” says Helen Lavery, chairperson of Highland Adapts.
“They present a sobering picture of how climate change is already impacting our regional economy, and how this may escalate in the future.
“However, they also represent an enormous strategic advantage for the Highland region. While the Highlands face significant challenges, we are not alone.
“Regions across Scotland and the UK will experience profound impacts from climate change, although, without this kind of research, they may not yet fully understand the scope of these impacts.
“It is now time for the Highland region to work together to take concrete steps to ensure our future resilience and prosperity.”
The report also highlighted a call to action to curb emissions globally and locally, minimising the extent of future climate change.
Highland residents and visitors are invited to add their own weather and climate stories to the Highland Weather & Climate Story Map until September 30.
